Coastal Climate impacts and uncertainties
This WP aims at developing an integrated probabilistic approach in order to assess coastal impacts of climate change with related uncertainties for different climate change and human development/adaptation scenarios and for the following sectors: (1) tourism, (2) navigation, (3) energy, (4) risk/insurance. Uncertainties of coastal impact models will be determined by propagating and quantifying parameter uncertainties through a range of medium-complexity models and by performing global sensitivity analysis in order to produce robust estimates of climate impacts.
The activities to achieve this goal are grouped into five tasks:
4.1. A review of existing appropriate complexity models and modelling strategies.
4.2. Analysis of the propagation of uncertainties through impact models (coastal erosion and flooding).
4.3. Selection of appropriate coastal impact approaches to evaluate coastal flooding and erosion hazards from local to European scales.
4.4. Estimation of climate impacts for energy, tourism, navigation and insurance sectors.
4.5. A Coastal Climate Change impact methodology.